⚠ RACE DAY FINAL  ·  4 scratches: Silent Tactic · Fulleffort · Right to Party · The Puma  ·  19 horses run tonight  ·  Tickets updated · Post 6:57 PM ET
152nd Run for the Roses · Churchill Downs · May 2, 2026

The Value
Bet Formula
Kentucky Derby

Race day final · 19 horses · Tickets updated · Formula re-run
Post time 6:57 PM ET · Tonight
19 horses · 1¼ miles dirt · $5M purse
The Puma scratched — tickets revised
📍 Pennsylvania betting — all apps legal ✓
Race Day Changes

Four scratches · Final formula re-run

Scratched this morning
The Puma (7-1)
Swelling in leg from skin infection. Was post 9. Only 19 horses run tonight. Removed from all tickets — replaced by Chief Wallabee throughout.
Formula moves up
Chief Wallabee → co-top pick
At 7-1 with blinkers added, now essentially tied with Emerging Market for #1 composite. Bill Mott won Derby 2019 & 2025. Takes The Puma's slot on all tickets.
Value compressed
Commandment 7-1 → 5-1
Public money flooded in after The Puma scratch. Pool saturation increases. Still your hedge key but at 5-1 the value is thinner than yesterday.
Also compressed
Emerging Market 11-1 → 9-1
Shortened further as public finds the formula's top pick. Still #1 composite. Check live tote — if above 20% of trifecta tickets consider switching key to Chief Wallabee.

The Puma scratch is significant but not fatal to the tickets. He was our hedge underneath horse in Trifecta B and C, and our scarcity partner in Superfecta 2. Chief Wallabee replaces him throughout — same post zone (12), same value tier, and actually better scarcity since he's slightly less bet than The Puma was.

Formula Output · Race Day Final

19-horse field · Current odds · Re-scored

Sorted by composite score. Odds as of Saturday morning. Four scratches shown struck through.

```
PPHorseOddsMoveBeyerProbScarcityPayoutPostScoreSignal
15
Emerging Market ★
Brown / Prat · Undefeated · Louisiana Derby W · post shifts to 14
9-1↑ from 11-198
30
76
52
+552Value ⭐
12
Chief Wallabee ★
Mott / Alvarado · Fountain of Youth 2nd · blinkers first time
7-1↑ from 9-199
36
64
46
+551Value ⭐
7
Danon Bourbon ★
Ikezoe / Nishimura · Undefeated Japan · 3W by 18L combined
14-1—N/A
24
78
56
+551Value
6
Commandment ★
Cox / Saez · Florida Derby W · 4-race win streak · 106 Beyer
5-1↑ from 7-1106
50
42
30
+544Value
19
Great White ⚡
Late entry · 1,300lb gray · Turfway 2W · post 19
29-1—82
10
70
74
−547Scarcity ⚡
18
Further Ado
Cox / Velazquez · Blue Grass W by 11L · field-best 108 Beyer
6-1—108
40
44
36
040Monitor
8
So Happy
Glatt / Mike Smith · Santa Anita Derby W · 103 Brisnet
5-1↑ from 6-1100
50
34
30
+540Monitor
1
Renegade
Pletcher / Ortiz Jr. · Arkansas Derby W · rail curse · quarter crack
5-1—104
50
8
28
−528Skip
2
Albus
Riley Mott · post 2 historic drought · 88 Beyer
43-1—88
6
88
80
−542Skip
3
Intrepido
Mullins · 57s bullet work · 4th Santa Anita Derby
45-1—85
6
90
82
−537Skip
4
Litmus Test
Baffert · Nyquist son · stalker · figures light
28-1—88
10
88
74
+543Skip
5
Robusta
O'Neill · late entry · faded 16L Santa Anita Derby · 89 Beyer
50-1—89
6
90
80
+543Skip
10
Wonder Dean
Takayanagi · UAE Derby W · Japan road · no US figures
22-1—N/A
14
82
64
+543Skip
11
Incredibolt
Riley Mott · Virginia Derby W · 7-week layoff · Colonial soft comp
24-1—94
12
82
68
+546Skip
13
Potente
Baffert · San Felipe W · 2nd Santa Anita Derby · 96 Beyer
21-1—96
14
78
64
+545Skip
16
Pavlovian
O'Neill · outside post · class concern
46-1—82
6
88
78
039Skip
17
Six Speed
Seemar · UAE Derby 2nd · post 17 never won · no US Beyer
34-1—N/A
8
88
78
037Skip
18
Golden Tempo
DeVaux · 3rd Louisiana Derby · outside post
25-1—86
10
86
72
−537Skip
20
Ocelli
Late entry · 92 Brisnet · 6th Virginia Derby · maiden
50-1—92
6
90
80
−537Skip
—
The Puma
SCRATCHED race morning — swelling from skin infection
——102SCRATCHED RACE MORNINGOut
—
Silent Tactic · Fulleffort · Right to Party
Previously scratched during Derby week
———ALL SCRATCHEDOut
```
Probability
Scarcity
Payout multiplier
Faded = skip
Green PP = optimal
Red PP = penalty
Scarcity bomb
Your Horses · Final

Six horses on your tickets tonight

#15
Emerging Market
9-1 · Post 14 (shifts in) · Brown / Prat
Undefeated · Louisiana Derby W · #1 composite
Check tote — if over 20% pool switch key to #12
Key pick — Trifecta A top
#12
Chief Wallabee
7-1 · Post 12 · Mott / Alvarado
Blinkers first time · lightly raced · room to improve
Bill Mott won Derby 2019 & 2025 · co-top composite
Co-key — replaces The Puma throughout
#6
Commandment
5-1 · Post 6 · Cox / Saez
4-race win streak · Florida Derby W · 106 Beyer
Shortened after Puma scratch — value compressed
Hedge key — Trifecta B + C
#7
Danon Bourbon
14-1 · Post 7 · Ikezoe / Nishimura
Undefeated Japan · 3W by 18L combined
Best remaining scarcity value in top tier
Underneath — Tri A + Super 1
#18
Further Ado
6-1 · Post 18 · Cox / Velazquez
Field-best 108 Beyer · Blue Grass W by 11L
Post 18 is the risk — form is elite
Hedge — Trifecta C box only
#19
Great White ⚡
29-1 · Post 19 · Late entry · 1,300lb gray
Turfway 2W · beat Fulleffort
Scarcity bomb — near-zero pool inclusion
Scarcity bomb — Superfecta 2 only

The Puma scratch and Chief Wallabee: Chief Wallabee is not a consolation prize — he was our #2 composite pick all week. The scratch simply elevates him from "underneath horse" to "co-key." Blinkers being added for the first time is a significant equipment change that Bill Mott has used successfully before. He won the Fountain of Youth with Chief Wallabee 2nd, beaten only by Commandment. If the pace gets contested early, he's got every reason to fire late.

The Bets · Race Day Final

Six tickets · $66 total · Race 11 · 6:57 PM ET

Chief Wallabee replaces The Puma on all tickets. Everything else unchanged. Post 19 Great White remains the scarcity bomb on Superfecta 2.

Trifecta A · Core ticket
Key #15 Emerging Market / box #6, #12, #7
#15 Emerging Market / box #6 Commandment #12 Chief Wallabee #7 Danon Bourbon
6 combos · $2 each$12.00
"Trifecta, key #15 on top, box #6 #12 #7, two dollars"
```
Exacta · Race 11
Key #15 over #6, #12, #7
#15 → #6 #12 #7
3 combos · $4 each$12.00
"Exacta, key #15, #6 #12 #7 underneath, four dollars"
Trifecta B · Commandment hedge
Key #6 / #15 + #12 / #7, #12
#6 / #15#12 / #7#12
4 combos · $1.50 each$6.00
Covers if Commandment wins over our value horses
Trifecta C · Further Ado hedge
Box #18, #6, #15, #12
#18 Further Ado #6 Commandment #15 Emerging Mkt #12 Chief Wallabee
24 combos · $0.50 each$12.00
"Trifecta box #18 #6 #15 #12, fifty cents a combo"
Superfecta 1 · Core value box
Box #15, #6, #12, #7
#15 Emerging Market #6 Commandment #12 Chief Wallabee #7 Danon Bourbon
24 combos · $0.50 each$12.00
"Superfecta box #15 #6 #12 #7, fifty cents a combo"
Superfecta 2 · Scarcity bomb
Box #19 Great White, #15, #6, #12
#19 Great White ⚡ #15 Emerging Mkt #6 Commandment #12 Chief Wallabee
24 combos · $0.50 each$12.00
"Superfecta box #19 #15 #6 #12, fifty cents a combo"
```
Total investment · Kentucky Derby · May 2
6 tickets · $12 + $12 + $6 + $12 + $12 + $12
$66.00
Quick Reference

All six bets — race day final

Tri A
Key #15 / box #6, #12, #7 · Core bet
Type: Trifecta · Mode: Key/KBX · 1st: #15 · 2nd+3rd: #6 #12 #7 · Stake: $2 · 6 combos = $12
"Trifecta, key #15 on top, box #6, #12, #7 for second and third, two dollars"
$12.00
Exacta
Key #15 / #6, #12, #7
Type: Exacta · Mode: Key · 1st: #15 · 2nd: #6 #12 #7 · Stake: $4 · 3 combos = $12
"Exacta, key #15 on top, #6, #12, #7 underneath, four dollars each"
$12.00
Tri B
Part wheel — #6 / #15,#12 / #7,#12 · Commandment hedge
Type: Trifecta · Mode: Part Wheel/Wheel(FD) · 1st: #6 · 2nd: #15 #12 · 3rd: #7 #12 · Stake: $1.50 · 4 combos = $6
"Trifecta part wheel, #6 on top, #15 and #12 second, #7 and #12 third, one fifty"
$6.00
Tri C
Box #18, #6, #15, #12 · Further Ado hedge
Type: Trifecta · Mode: Box · Select: #18 #6 #15 #12 · Stake: $0.50 · 24 combos = $12
"Trifecta box #18, #6, #15, #12, fifty cents a combo"
$12.00
Super 1
Box #15, #6, #12, #7 · Core value box
Type: Superfecta · Mode: Box · Select: #15 #6 #12 #7 · Stake: $0.50 · 24 combos = $12
"Superfecta box #15, #6, #12, #7, fifty cents a combo"
$12.00
Super 2 ⚡
Box #19, #15, #6, #12 · Great White scarcity bomb
Type: Superfecta · Mode: Box · Select: #19 #15 #6 #12 · Stake: $0.50 · 24 combos = $12
"Superfecta box #19, #15, #6, #12, fifty cents a combo"
$12.00
How to Place

Step-by-step on your app

📍
Betting from Pennsylvania tonight — all apps legal ✓
Apps use geolocation — where you physically are, not where you live. Location services on, VPN off, you're good to bet from anywhere in Pennsylvania.
DK Horse
✓ PA
FanDuel Racing
✓ PA
NYRA Bets
✓ PA
Caesars Racebook
✓ PA
DraftKings Horse
iOS & Android · Search "DK Horse" · PA ✓
  1. 1
    Find Churchill Downs Race 11
    Tap Races → Today → Churchill Downs → Race 11 (post 6:57 PM ET). Confirm 19 horses — The Puma is not in the field tonight.
  2. 2
    Trifecta A — $12 (core ticket)
    Type: Trifecta · Mode: Key · 1st: #15 · 2nd+3rd: #6, #12, #7 · Stake: $2 · 6 combos = $12 · Submit.
  3. 3
    Exacta — $12
    Type: Exacta · Mode: Key · 1st: #15 · 2nd: #6, #12, #7 · Stake: $4 · 3 combos = $12 · Submit.
  4. 4
    Trifecta B — $6
    Type: Trifecta · Mode: Part Wheel · 1st: #6 · 2nd: #15, #12 · 3rd: #7, #12 · Stake: $1.50 · 4 combos = $6 · Submit.
  5. 5
    Trifecta C — $12
    Type: Trifecta · Mode: Box · Select: #18, #6, #15, #12 · Stake: $0.50 · 24 combos = $12 · Submit.
  6. 6
    Superfecta 1 — $12
    Type: Superfecta · Mode: Box · Select: #15, #6, #12, #7 · Stake: $0.50 · 24 combos = $12 · Submit.
  7. 7
    Superfecta 2 — $12 ⚡
    Type: Superfecta · Mode: Box · Select: #19, #15, #6, #12 · Stake: $0.50 · 24 combos = $12 · Submit.
  8. 8
    Verify all 6 tickets
    Tap Bet Slip · confirm all six · total $66.00 · screenshot · turn off VPN in Pennsylvania.
DK tip: Check Probables before placing. If Emerging Market (#15) is above 20% of trifecta pool, consider switching the Trifecta A key to Chief Wallabee (#12) instead.
FanDuel Racing
racing.fanduel.com · Separate from Sportsbook · Live streams Derby free · PA ✓

FanDuel Racing is separate from FanDuel Sportsbook. Search "FanDuel Racing" in the app store. Stream the Derby free by tapping Watch. FanDuel calls Part Wheel "Wheel".

  1. 1
    Find Churchill Downs Race 11
    Homepage → Churchill Downs → Race 11. Confirm 19 horses. Tap Watch to stream.
  2. 2
    Trifecta A — $12
    Tap TR → Key · 1st: #15 · 2nd+3rd: #6, #12, #7 · Stake: $2 · Submit ($12).
  3. 3
    Exacta — $12
    Tap EX → Key · 1st: #15 · 2nd: #6, #12, #7 · Stake: $4 · Submit ($12).
  4. 4
    Trifecta B — $6
    Tap TR → Wheel · 1st: #6 · 2nd: #15, #12 · 3rd: #7, #12 · Stake: $1.50 · Submit ($6).
  5. 5
    Trifecta C — $12
    Tap TR → Box · Select: #18, #6, #15, #12 · Stake: $0.50 · Submit ($12).
  6. 6
    Superfecta 1 — $12
    Tap SU → Box · Select: #15, #6, #12, #7 · Stake: $0.50 · Submit ($12).
  7. 7
    Superfecta 2 — $12 ⚡
    Tap SU → Box · Select: #19, #15, #6, #12 · Stake: $0.50 · Submit ($12).
FD tip: Check Will Pays for live payouts. Stream free with Watch.
NYRA Bets
nyrabets.com · 30+ states · PA ✓
  1. 1
    Find Churchill Downs Race 11
    Tap Races → Today's Races → Churchill Downs → Race 11. Confirm 19 horses.
  2. 2
    Trifecta A — $12
    Type: Trifecta · Key or KBX · 1st: #15 · 2nd+3rd: #6, #12, #7 · Amount: $2 · Submit.
  3. 3
    Exacta — $12
    Type: Exacta · Key · 1st: #15 · 2nd: #6, #12, #7 · Amount: $4 · Submit.
  4. 4
    Trifecta B — $6
    Type: Trifecta · Part Wheel · 1st: #6 · 2nd: #15, #12 · 3rd: #7, #12 · Amount: $1.50 · Submit.
  5. 5
    Trifecta C — $12
    Type: Trifecta · Box · Select: #18, #6, #15, #12 · Amount: $0.50 · Submit.
  6. 6
    Superfecta 1 — $12
    Type: Superfecta · Box · Select: #15, #6, #12, #7 · Amount: $0.50 · Submit.
  7. 7
    Superfecta 2 — $12 ⚡
    Type: Superfecta · Box · Select: #19, #15, #6, #12 · Amount: $0.50 · Submit.
NYRA tip: Use KBX if Key not visible. Check Probables for live payouts.
Caesars Racebook
Powered by NYRA Bets · Separate app · Earns Rewards · PA ✓

Search "Caesars Racebook" — not "Caesars Sportsbook." Interface identical to NYRA Bets. Every wager earns Caesars Rewards points.

  1. 1
    Find Churchill Downs Race 11 · Place all six bets
    Tri A: Key → 1st: #15 → 2nd+3rd: #6 #12 #7 → $2 → Submit ($12)

    Exacta: Key → 1st: #15 → 2nd: #6 #12 #7 → $4 → Submit ($12)

    Tri B: Part Wheel → 1st: #6 → 2nd: #15 #12 → 3rd: #7 #12 → $1.50 → Submit ($6)

    Tri C: Box → #18 #6 #15 #12 → $0.50 → Submit ($12)

    Super 1: Box → #15 #6 #12 #7 → $0.50 → Submit ($12)

    Super 2 ⚡: Box → #19 #15 #6 #12 → $0.50 → Submit ($12)
  2. 2
    Verify in My Bets
    All 6 tickets · total $66.00 · screenshot · check Will Pays at post time.
Honest Read

Going into post time

This is the widest-open Derby in years. Six horses with single-digit odds — Renegade, Commandment, So Happy, Further Ado, Chief Wallabee, Emerging Market. The formula's edge is that Chief Wallabee and Emerging Market are still the least-bet of that group.

Further Ado's 108 Beyer is the best figure in the field. Post 17 has never produced a Derby winner. He's in Trifecta C because the formula can't ignore that performance. If he gets a clean trip wide he could wire the field.

Renegade is a legitimate 5-1. Pletcher has a quarter crack concern he's been open about. The formula skips him on pool saturation + post history. If he wins you cash nothing from Trifectas A, B, or the exacta — Trifecta C does not include him.

Great White at 29-1 is still a scarcity play on Superfecta 2. He shortened from 50-1 but 29-1 still means most people don't have him. The $12 box is fully justified. Do not put more on him than this.

Check live Will Pays or Probables on your app right now. If Emerging Market is above 20% of trifecta pool, consider swapping the Trifecta A key to Chief Wallabee. Good luck tonight. 🌹